Here Are 5 Institutions That Got El Niño Dead Wrong

With the El?Ni?o weather phenomenon expected by experts to come to an end this summer, it's pretty clear that breathless predictions of a historically wet winter for Los Angeles were woefully inaccurate.

As winter approached, the idea was that this El?Ni?o, characterized by nearly record warm waters along the equatorial Pacific, would mimic those of 1983 and 1998 and send a precipitation-packed jet stream into Southern California, causing historic rainfall.

Instead we have seen 6.83 inches of rainfall in downtown L.A. this season, less than half of normal, according to the latest data from the National Weather Service. (Depending on how you measure the season, rain was also slightly above half of normal.)

Even the most reasonable predictions of a wet winter for the region were off.El Ni?o delivered. Just not here.

Near-normal to above-normal rain was seen in Northern California and the Pacific Northwest as the jet stream rarely came knocking in SoCal. In fact, we saw the hottest February on record when it came to daily high temperatures. Most of Los Angeles County remains under exceptional drought conditions. The last of the area ski resorts still running on winter snow shut down for the season earlier this month.

So, when it comes to El?Ni?o predictions, who got it wrong??

5. The?National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. Even one of the most conservative predictions of a wet winter called for a?60 percent chance for above-average rainfall in Southern California. Not even close.

4.Local forecasters. TV news forecasters were all too eager to get on the El?Ni?o train. Batten down the hatches, they said. Prepare for a biblical deluge, they said.

If you've been paying close attention, you know the NBCLA weather team has been saying for months that we should be prepared for February and March, stated L.A.'s NBC affiliate in January. Everything is still on track for that time frame.

Guess not.

3. Government officials. Local leaders bought into the hype like rubes at a time-share pitch. In November, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said, While we can never completely accurately predict the weather, it's about a 95 percent certainty that we will (see) a huge impact from El Ni?o this season.''

Huge.

He appeared to be misinterpreting this Climate Prediction Center statement:?There is an approximately 95 percent chance that El Ni?o will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.

Los Angeles County government officials started an?El Ni?o web portal that has information on winter shelters, road closures, downed trees, plus info on how to protect pets and livestock from the storms that never came.

There's probably little downside to preparing for the worst except, of course, for the possible cost to taxpayers. But if leaders didn't prepare and we did get hit with massive storms, there would have been political hell to pay.

2. The Los Angeles Times. The publication, once SoCal's beacon of sober analysis, sometimes read like TMZ for weather. The paper picked up on Jet Propulsion Laboratory climatologist Bill Patzert's observation that this season's Southern California rains had the potential of being the Godzilla El Ni?o.

The term?Godzilla El Ni?o was used in banner headlines around the nation, and one L.A. Times report even stated, with little qualification, that A 'Godzilla' El Ni?o is on the way. Times headlines included, A huge El Ni?o could devastate Southern California and Massive El Ni?o is now 'too big to fail,' scientist says.

The paper might have relied too much on one expert (below) who had the most bullish vision of a wet season.

1.Bill?Patzert, the climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory near Pasadena, was the scientist with the most dire predictions about winter rain in Southern California.

His Godzilla quote, above, was wisely tempered with the word potential, but as the winter wore on and the deluge never came, Patzert doubled down.

We're looking good for March and April, he told the Times in February.

Patzert, citing late-season rains in 1983 and 1998, continued to hold onto his forecast for a soaking. He called for a second peak in the?El Ni?o pattern that would redeem his assessment. I think El Ni?o will live up to its hype, but you have to be patient, he said?

In a recent report published by the Riverside Press-Enterprise, Patzert sounded downright defensive:


Don't think that this was not Godzilla El Ni?o because it didn't deliver in Southern California. That means you're taking El Ni?o too personally. You've got to look at the big picture.

Just because it was a gecko in Riverside doesn't mean it wasn't a Godzilla elsewhere.


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